In the Las Vegas real estate world, we typically rely on a predictable rhythm: the market hibernates during the winter holidays and begins to wake up as the desert air warms. For years, I’ve told my clients, “As the weather warms up, so does the market—and that usually starts around Valentine’s Day.”
However, the last few years have been anything but typical.
The “Great Re-Shuffle” and the Market Hangover
The pandemic disrupted our normal cycles, creating what I call the Great Re-Shuffle. When the world moved indoors, thousands of Las Vegans realized their current homes no longer fit their lives. Whether they needed more space for a home office or wanted to be closer to family, people moved in record numbers.
This surge created a “market hangover” that we are still feeling today. Many homeowners who moved in the early 2020s aren’t ready to move again—either because they’ve already found their “forever” spot or because they are holding onto historically low mortgage rates.
Navigating Today’s Reality
Today’s buyers and sellers are facing a different landscape. While mortgage rates are roughly double what they were a few years ago, it is helpful to remember that they remain below the 30-year median. The primary challenge isn’t just the rates; it’s the limited supply. Because so many people moved during the 2020–2022 frenzy, the “natural” inventory that usually flows into the market has been delayed.
Looking Ahead: A Return to Tradition?
Despite the volatility of the last few seasons, I am finally seeing signs of our market returning to its traditional seasonal roots. We are seeing more intentional activity and a shift away from the post-pandemic “noise.”
So, will our old trend hold true this year? Let’s see what Valentine’s Day brings.
